By Mikhail Myagkov, Peter C. Ordeshook, Dimitri Shakin
This quantity bargains a few forensic signs of election fraud utilized to legitimate election returns, and exams and illustrates their software in Russia and Ukraine. integrated are the methodology's econometric information and theoretical assumptions. The functions to Russia contain the research of all federal elections among 1996 and 2007 and, for Ukraine, among 2004 and 2007. ordinarily, we discover that fraud has metastasized in the Russian polity in the course of Putin's management with upwards of 10 million or extra suspect votes in either the 2004 and 2007 vote casting, while in Ukraine, fraud has decreased significantly because the moment around of its 2004 presidential election the place among 1.5 to three million votes have been falsified. the amount concludes with a attention of information from the us to demonstrate the risks of the appliance of our tools with out due attention of an election's considerable context and the features of the knowledge to hand.
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Extra info for The Forensics of Election Fraud: Russia and Ukraine
More than likely, such 30 Indicators 31 examples illustrate that fraud can be shamelessly committed in Russia with no negative consequences for its perpetrators and no regard for Western opinion (or, with respect to Germany under the leadership of the likes of Gerhard Schro¨der, with the understanding that other political considerations such as who supplies whom with natural gas or who will appoint who to Gasprom’s board of directors following one’s career in elected office will lead officials to anoint any election as free and fair).
If one piece of evidence strongly hints at fraud but a second does not, then barring a strong argument to the contrary, we cannot reject the hypothesis that the election is legitimate. Since major criminal investigations rarely hinge on a solitary piece of evidence (despite what one might be led to believe by Hollywood’s portrayal of things), one piece of incriminating evidence, even if nothing contradicts it, should be accompanied by other evidentiary material. And whatever that evidence might be should be consistent with what we already know about a situation.
In Chapter 4 we turn our attention to Ukraine and its 2004 presidential vote. The specific question that concerns us is whether our indicators signal the massive fraud in the November vote alleged by nearly all objective observers, and whether those signals disappear in the conclusive December runoff. Chapter 5 then turns to Ukraine’s 2006 and 2007 parliamentary contests. One question here is whether in a parliamentary as against a presidential contest, our indicators confirm the general assessment that both elections were relatively fraud-free or whether various irregularities escaped notice either out of inattention or a simple desire to judge the contests as free and fair.
The Forensics of Election Fraud: Russia and Ukraine by Mikhail Myagkov, Peter C. Ordeshook, Dimitri Shakin